Opportunity Sizing

Five customers ask for dark mode.

Is that a big opportunity?

Maybe.

If you have eight customers, definitely interesting.

If you have two million users, probably not enough information.

Counts need context.

Opportunity sizing means estimating the shape of the problem well enough to make a decision.

Useful questions include:

• How many users are affected?
• How often does it happen?
• How painful is it?
• What business value is involved?
• How strategic is it?

You are not trying to predict the future perfectly.

A painful problem that happens once a year may matter less than a moderate problem that happens ten times a day.

Example:

Export fails once during annual tax reporting.

versus:

Search fails every time a support agent looks up a policy.

Both may matter, but in different ways.

A problem affecting 2% of users can still be critical if the consequence is severe.

For example:

2% of payments are charged twice.

That deserves more attention than many high-frequency cosmetic issues.

Suppose only twelve customers need a feature.

Normally small.

But those twelve customers represent 45% of revenue.

Now the opportunity looks different.

Sizing is not only about user count.

Do not turn weak assumptions into impressive-looking numbers.

If you do not know the frequency, say:

We do not know yet.

Then find out.

A rough honest range is often better than a confident fake estimate.

Before prioritizing a problem, understand its reach, frequency, severity, and business importance.

Sizing gives context to urgency.